We have updated the Pupil Projection Template and posted it on the TASBO website. You can find it under resources / tools and templates from our main page, or use the link provided
here. This tool is designed to help you estimate attendance and special program student counts in future years. It has been updated with the 2017-2018 near final summary of finances attendance data as well as the 2017-2018 enrollment counts.
Once you download it, you will need to enable macros in excel for it to work properly.
The 2017-2018 school year turned out to show substantially slower enrollment growth than prior years. Total statewide ADA in 2017-2018 was 5,004,614 (even after the application of a hold-harmless for hurricane Harvey) while legislative payment estimates during the course of the year were built on estimated ADA of 5,060,553 (a drop of nearly 56,000 students compared to estimates). Since 2018-2019 attendance estimates are built from the presumption of continued growth off of what turned out to be an inflated base, the legislative payment estimate ADA in 2018-2019 of 5,131,906 statewide is likely off by even more. Statewide attendance would have to grow by nearly 128,000 students this year compared to last year for these number to hold. Last year, we grew by 32,690 students in ADA.
This means that many ISDs will have a negative settle-up both this year and next year as the system catches up. It will be important for you to be tracking real FSP earnings as compared to payments so you are prepared.
The template incorporates 2017-2018 attendance data as it existed prior to the application of the Harvey attendance hold-harmless. If your district was impacted by the floods, you will want to consider how to make adjustments for this potentially anomalous year. If you were in one of these districts, you will also want to remember that the decision to allow impacted students to participate in the free lunch program impacted compensatory education counts.
Finally, there is some evidence that special education counts are ticking up. Special Education FTEs were 17,000 higher as of near final in 2017-2018 than the legislative payment estimate counts predicted. You will want to work closely with your special education department as you make projections going forward.